Most of us probably know that Buchan wam and cold spells are a myth and a figment of Alexander Buchan’s imagination. I was always suspicious that the dates of the seven of the nine singularities all ended on either the 13th or 14th of the month. That aside I thought I would take a look at his first cold spell that’s meant to occur between the 7th and 14th of February, because this year (2021) it looks like we might well get a direct hit. The chart below is a severe test for any cold spell. The chart below displays only cold spells that have had a mean minimum anomaly of -5°C or lower for five days or more. As you can see there have not been that many instances of that happening since 1878 in central England, in fact the last such spell occurred over ten years ago in December 2010. If you look at the yellow vertical bar that represents the 7th to the 14th of February only seven spells occurred in that period, and only one of the seven spells, that of 1895, spanned the entire seven days. Now you can see why Buchans spells aren’t given much credence these days.